Tuesday, April 8, 2008

Energy: Soaring Gasoline Prices and Raiders of the Lost Ark

Who can forget the gigantic warehouse at the end of Raiders of the Lost Ark? The ark had been carefully crated and was being wheeled into the bowels of a storage area the size of Rhode Island, never, we are certain, to be found again.

In a somewhat more modest way, I had a similar experience. This time, however, the offending object was not the Ark of the Covenant but a cheap device that doubled or tripled a car's gas mileage while at the same time keeping the engine surprisingly clean.

It was 1978, and I was doing a weekly public affairs television interview show in the Pacific Northwest. As you might imagine, all sorts of unusual folks applied for a place on that show. Those involved in producing it learned to be wary.

I nearly didn't return the call when the caller's message said that he had invented a "miraculous" gas-saving device. This was in the middle of the second great Gas Crisis, and many hucksters had come up with apparatuses that did little but enrich them. Although I was skeptical, something prompted me to return the call.

Bob, let's call him, was very friendly and understood my skepticism, having encountered it many times before. He said that the proof was in the pudding and offered to give me a demonstration. Bob agreed to come over to the television station the next morning for the purpose.

The circumstances of this TV station need to be described. Unlike most television stations, which over the years have moved their offices and studios away from their original mountaintop locations and into town, this station had maintained its entire operation high up next to the transmitter and huge tower. The last several hundred feet--the station driveway taking off from the winding road that led to the base of this last summit--were extremely steep. In fact, when it snowed, it was often necessary for employees to park at the base of the driveway and ride up on station snow cats.

Bob met me in the parking lot of the TV station and showed me what was under the hood of his fairly old V-8 Ford pickup truck. An object perhaps two inches thick sat between the carburetor and the intake manifold. A plastic tube and a wire or two led from the object through the firewall, where the tube connected to a reservoir inside the cab.

Bob explained that the device very simply injected atomized water, which flowed from the reservoir, into the fuel-air mixture that was moving from the carburetor into the intake manifold. He had designed the device to adjust the amount of injected water to match the quantity of this mixture. He claimed that this simple modification would increase gasoline mileage from 100% to 200%, according to his own extensive experimentation. Not only that, but introducing this atomized water had the secondary but very beneficial effect of keeping the inside of his engines extremely clean.

There was no way I could verify the cleanliness of any of his vehicle engines, I told Bob, but we certainly could check his mileage with fair accuracy. Bob produced a witnessed and notarized statement from the head mechanic at one of the area's more respected and long-established auto repair shops. This statement declared that the mechanic had entirely disassembled the engine of the very truck Bob had brought to the TV station. The mechanic found only very modest and even wear characteristic of a well-kept engine with perhaps 50,000 miles. This truck had run in excess of 300,000 miles. He also discoverd almost no "gunk" or other deposits.

I was becoming intrigued, no doubt about it. Bob suggested that before we run a mileage check, he demonstrate the characteristics of the engine as modified by his device. I agreed. We went to the bottom of the steep station driveway. From a dead stop right at the base, Bob let out the clutch (it was a manual transmission) and went up in low gear. This was no great feat, although many vehicles, including some pickup trucks, needed something of a running start even in low.

We went back down the grade, where Bob turned around and did the same thing again, only he shifted after about three or four seconds into second gear. The engine was working to keep the truck pulling up the mountain, but it did it--and with no pinging or lurching. The ride was very smooth, as was the engine.

Back down the grade we went again. This time, Bob gave himself about 50 feet of run-up to the base of the driveway. He started in low, shifted to second just as he hit the grade, and perhaps two seconds later Bob shifted again into third gear. Astonishingly, that engine pulled the truck to the top, pretty obviously straining but not making any popping or pinging sounds or missing at all.

I never would have believed it had I not actually experienced it myself. Much humbled, I suggested that we next do a mileage check. After filling the tank to the cap, we headed for the freeway and drove about 100 miles at highway speed (pretty fast, that is). The engine, I must say, sounded smooth and quiet, not what you might expect from an old truck's engine. The reason for doing the test on the freeway was that it was easier to get an accurate reading on the gasoline mileage that way than to structure representative city driving.

After topping off the gas tank again, I did the simple calculation necessary to determine gasoline mileage. Imagine my astonishment when it came out to better than 33 mpg, over twice what Bob had gotten on the highway before he had installed his invention, back when the truck was new. I double-checked and triple-checked, but the mileage came out the same. Bob said that some vehicles did even better than that, sometimes dramatically better. I believed him.

Naturally, we did a TV show about Bob's invention. Bob told me afterwards that he was in negotiations for the licensing, manufacture, and distribution of his device, figuring that the royalties would earn him untold millions of dollars even as his invention potentially cut gasoline consumption in automobiles by at least a third. He and I both thought that Bob, using that legendary American genius and initiative, had solved a large part of the energy crisis. He promised to stay in touch and let me know how things were going. I thought I'd find out from eight-inch headlines in the newspaper and screaming bulletins from CBS.

How foolish and naiive we were. It was a couple of years later when I was going through my files. I ran across program notes from that show and immediately wondered what had happened, particularly because I had not heard anything since then. It had slipped off my radar, probably because I had been so certain of hearing dramatic news and seeing vast reductions in gasoline consumption. It never happened, as we all know.

I called Bob, who sounded very distant and guarded when he found out who it was. I asked him what had happened; he said that he had lost interest in the project and had let it drop. I responded with, "Lost interest?! Let it drop?! You must be joking!! You had the most significant invention of at least the decade and you just put it away?? I don't believe it!." I guess I was that aggressive because it truly was impossible to believe.

Bob paused, and then said, "Well, I guess I owe you some explanation. Your interest and program kind of launched my public effort to get my invention into production. But it never happened. Not long after your show, I got a call from an executive with the ------------ corporation." Bob went on to explain that this corporation, a very, very, very, very large petroleum producer and marketer, offered him a substantial amount of money for his invention. The executive never told Bob how they found out about it.

Bob told the man he was not interested in selling out but in developing his device. After all, not only would he make far more money that way, he would vastly benefit individual automobile owners and the country as a whole. The executive raised the ante substantially. Bob continued to refuse. The payoff went up again, and again, and again. Finally, the executive, reported Bob, said he had reached the limit and could go no higher.

In response, Bob said that he really did not want to sell out and would continue with his plan to develop and market his invention. According to Bob, that's when the executive turned very icy. Without directly threatening Bob, the executive suggested how expensive and time-consuming it might be for someone who had invented something if an organization with vast resources decided that it's patents had been infringed and took the inventor to court. It might be years--decades--before any settlement was reached, and the legal costs to the inventor could be in the millions of dollars by then.

Bob got the message and sold out for a very comfortable amount. He said he couldn't reveal how much he had received--that was part of the agreement--but that it was in the high eight figures. He greatly regreted it but couldn't see how anyone would have benefitted had he launched a one-sided war he seemed doomed to have lost anyway. Bob imagined that his prototype was sitting somewhere on a storeroom shelf in the bowels of the oil company, attracting brief glances from curious passers-by but otherwise probably to be undisturbed until the end of time. I hardly knew what to say.

A few years later, that great movie, Raiders of the Lost Ark, was released. Because of that movie, I have modified the fate Bob imagined for his device. It was not on display on a dusty shelf but wheeled in an unmarked crate to a storage area in a vast warren of crates where it would never be found again. Very likely, other Bobs have developed similar devices over the years and decades. They are probably resting in their own crates not very far from Bob's.

I am certain that you are as pleased as I am that the production and profits of the -------------- corporation have not been disturbed, as they would have been had Bob's invention been made available to us.

Thursday, April 3, 2008

Deficit/National Debt: Sinking Boat in a Sea of Debt

Right now, the national debt stands at approximately $9,300,000,000,000. Because it is rising by about a million dollars a minute, it will have gone up enough by tomorrow at this time to eclipse the guys at the lower end of the Richest Dudes in the World list. By this time next month, even Bill Gates would be humbled.

We owe individuals and corporations here and all over the world untold billions, paying them interest in unimaginable amounts every year. But the most ominous development is the growing fraction of the national debt owed to foreign governments. One of our biggest creditors is . . . Kuwait. Remember them and how this country's blood and treasure tore them out of Saddam Hussein's grasp and restored their independence? They are certainly back in business. Let's hope they continue to view the United States as a friend. After all, someone with several hundred billion dollars in U.S. Treasury bonds is in a position to cause an economic calamity by dumping them.

China also owns hundreds of billions in Treasury securities, and their "friendship" is, to say the least, not entirely dependable. Another great ally that holds mega-billions in U.S. government debt is Russia, which continues its incremental lurching to authoritarianism and perhaps beyond. After all, Vladimir Putin is a former KGB officer from back in the days when real Soviet he-men in power didn't put up with wimps and their democratic clap-trap. (If you happen to meet Mr. Putin sometime and he offers to shake your hand, be certain he isn't palming a pair of pliers to soften up one of your knuckles with.)

Those younger than about 40 may not realize this, but maybe a couple of generations ago, the United States was the world's leading creditor nation. How on earth could we have gone from such a gleaming fiscal pinnacle to the depths of financial wretchedness in just a few quick and easy steps? Imagine a sleek, shiny airplane, maybe a 747. If maintenance is skipped, and at the same time it is positively abused with gritty oil, dirty fuel, and high-stress, full-throttle dives and spins, it will suddenly begin to come apart even while the outside continues to look sleek and shiny.

There are many reasons for our present grave predicament, but one deserves mention precisely because it is not often considered. Ever since FDR's administration, we have been told, variously, that we don't have to worry about the national debt because "we owe it to ourselves" (that's pretty well out the window), that we'll be running a surplus soon so that we can pay it down, that it is a very low fraction of our gross domestic product, and so on. These are all distractions designed to let the pilots in Washington open up the throttles and do curlicues and power dives even while the engines are sucking up bad fuel and fouled oil.

All of these decades of passing off the hugest debt of all as not only benign but even beneficial have had their effect. How can the average individual feel uncomfortable about his own debt when he sees the government spending money it doesn't have for purposes that often, to his way of thinking, have little or no value. He, on the other hand, can go into debt to buy something that he can absolutely justify, something that will give him enjoyment.

Just because something is legal doesn't make it moral, so the saying goes. Most people would probably continue to abhor murder even if laws against it were repealed. Other things might not hold up so well, especially those matters with a strong, natural appeal. For most people, it's downright exhilarating to spend a bunch of money on fun stuff. When the money is not there, where is the convincing objection to borrowing it if all you have ever seen during your whole life is a government that borrows and borrows and borrows with seemingly no ill consequences?

Well, now the proverbial chickens have come home to roost (and, sadly, we seem to be standing right under them). The mighty engine that was American prosperity and productivity has kept the sleek, shiny airplane flying along with no apparent problems. Of course, those who wanted to listen--who wanted to listen?--would have heard the grinding of failing turbines and the clatter of a disintegrating air frame. But for those bent on enjoying the ride to the end--most of us, it would seem--ignoring those pesky warning signs was the way to keep having fun by not worrying.

So here we are with our gigantic national debt, owed more and more each day to foreign governments. The prospects are dismal, especially given the incomprehensible liabilities of both Social Security and Medicare, neither of which can survive in any meaningful form for many more years without draconian measures.

That's the problem: Draconian measures are what is required all around to rescue the economy. But no one wants draconian measures, especially if we are all conditioned to having a good time without much in the way of pain. We can continue to postpone the day of reckoning, but that will just make the castrophe worse when we no longer can keep all the plates spinning atop the poles, and they begin to crash around us. It's something like ignoring cancer because it's scary and painful to treat. But later, when it has metastasized and is raging throughout the body, the treatment is infinitely more horrible and quite possibly won't do any good anyway.

We had better swallow the gallon of unspeakably nasty medicine right now. Otherwise, our present course will have us in economic metastasis very soon.

Tuesday, April 1, 2008

Society: The Death of Shame

The San Antonio newspaper ran an in-depth, two-part series Sunday and Monday about very young, unmarried mothers. At this point, anyone writing such a sentence as this is supposed to genuflect to political correctness by affirming his/her infinite tolerance, to include a complete acceptance of whatever lifestyle anyone may choose to adopt and any behavior that does not harm anyone else. After all, this continues, who am I to impose my standards on another person? After all, one's conception of right, wrong, and acceptable behavior is as good as another's.

We have a fertile field for all sorts of posts here, but for the moment, we'll restrict the discussion to one area. The word "conception" in the last sentence of the previous paragraph really seems to stick out, doesn't it? That's what these girls--no doubt we should call them "women" even when they are 14 or 15--have managed to do. As we all know, however, this was not done by the girls alone. They had enthusiastic help.

The young teenagers featured in the articles both followed in their mothers' glorious footsteps. A family history of early and unmarried pregnancy has been forged and nurtured. One of the girls is even a third-generation success at this. In fact, she managed to entertain a succession of "boyfriends" during her infant son's nap time. Later, when he is old enough to perceive what is going on, he will internalize all of this behavior and, in due course, doubtlessly will shower his own attentions on a 13-year-old girl. This will have the happy consequence of making his mother a grandmother at 28.

The lads who are the fathers seem to have a strange aversion to any real commitment, including (gasp!) marriage. Their commitment does manage to last long enough for them to obtain a little periodic private time with their, uh, sweethearts, however. Evidently they are viscerally conscious of the essence of an old saying even if they never have heard it: "Why buy the cow when the milk is free?"

Free? Oh, but there is child support, something these and so many other lads normally weary of fairly soon, especially if they have been energetic in their efforts and have managed to produce other happy offspring with other young lasses. They soon find themselves needing the income of a neurosurgeon to keep up with all the child support. Medical school being just slightly out of reach for what are typically high school dropouts, they look for miraculous income at burger joints and car washes. That proves disappointing, often prompting them to move on to greener pastures, fields of opportunity that do not vex them with crying babies, clinging girls, and impossible financial demands. Because these new fields of opportunity are generally very fertile fields, they soon produce additions to the population in their new surroundings.

We won't take time to review the dismal statistics here: They are easily available through a Google search. Suffice it to say, the "behavior-without-harm" business is pure baloney in this whole arena (but how it glides off the tongue). The compounding harm from all of this is right on track to overwhelm society in a surging sea of misfit, malcontent, self-absorbed sociopaths. What a heritage we are creating for a once-great nation. It is rather like descending from the dazzling heights of Mt. Hood in Oregon into the pit under the outhouse of a dysentery ward.

What can be done? Stopping and then reversing the plunge into wretchedness is as difficult a challenge as the plunge itself is quick and easy. Building is alway far harder and infinitely more time-consuming than destruction. I remember once tearing out a kitchen down to the wall studs. It took three of us precisely two hours. Replacing that kitchen was the work of two weeks.

So what can be done? Will not more among us step up and insist, with conviction, that marriage followed by children is the only way to have some realistic chance of building an unscathed family, not children followed by marriage or, more and more likely, children followed by no marriage at all but instead by a cascade of "boyfriends" and "girlfriends."

But all the harping and lecturing in the world will do little good. People have to feel it inside; they have to be motivated to do the right thing; they have to be different from the way they were. This does not come about from blase sex education classes, from distributing birth control devices from the school nurse's office, from running "safe sex" ads on TV. These things have no more to do with solving this problem than tinkering with the carburetor has to do with overhauling the engine. It's the "apply-enough-bandages-and-maybe-the-severed-aorta-will-go-away" school of foolishness.

How do we effect the transformation necessary? Ponder on this, and we'll take it up again in the future.

Friday, March 28, 2008

Birth of a Blog

Why another blog when there are millions of them already?

One reason is that this one will very likely present viewpoints not always easily found elsewhere. Another is that it is just too time-consuming to be writing extended e-mails to family, friends, and associates about this, that, and the other burning issue. That is what I have been doing for some years. It's just not very efficient.

A third reason is that I'd be writing all of this down somewhere anyway, so why not place it where anyone with an interest can read it? If no one is interested, the loss is negligible, especially given the ease with which a blog can be launched. It took all of three minutes to set up this one.

This blog will deal with the large issues we face. It's not that every post will discuss the fate of the universe, of course, because there is plenty to instruct, amuse, bemuse, and uplift us that isn't necessarily earth-shattering. But the large issues will never be far off. They really can't be even if we wished it. The challenges before us will not go away, and we can't put them in a box and just forget about them.

We live in a serious time full of serious problems. Fortunately, there is nothing that says we have to go around in a state of despair, however difficult conditions are. So let's consider what we have before us, see if we can find ways to improve things and maintain a cheerful attitude throughout. Or at least not be too dismal.

One final word. Why is this blog called The U.S. Federalist? Frankly, I'd have preferred "The American Federalist"--it rolls off the tongue more smoothly--but that was already taken. So The U.S. Federalist it is. But what does it signify?

In presidential lists, George Washington's party designation is commonly made "Federalist." Strictly speaking, he wasn't a Federalist at all, at least not the first time he was elected. He was a member of no party and in fact very strongly opposed and vigorously spoke against "faction," what we would now call dividing into political parties.

By his second term, he was more accurately known as a Federalist, whether he liked it or not (by most accounts, he didn't). Infighting and squabbling had already arisen, and the great Washington himself was subject to criticism. But the Federalist Party was the founding political party of our republic, and even though the Republicans, as the Jeffersonians came to be called (later the Democratic-Republicans and then Democrats), had legitimate viewpoints as well, the Federalists were truly the "founding faction" of the United States.

Remember The Federalist (usually called The Federalist Papers)? This series of newspaper articles, written by Alexander Hamilton, James Madison, and John Jay, were published in New York newspapers during 1787 and 1788 under the name "Publius." They were arguing in support of the Constitution, then in process of ratification. Because of English that is 220 years old, the reading requires more attention than if you're scanning through Harry Potter, but the reasoning in defense of the Constitution is breathtaking. We should have such great minds in our service today.

The point is, they called it The Federalist, because they were expounding upon a new, amazing governmental arrangement unlike anything else in history, one based on carefully separated and balanced powers, including a strong separation between the states and the people on the one hand and the federal government on the other.

As The U.S. Federalist unfolds and develops, I hope you will enjoy it. Meanwhile, I hope someone comes up with an alternative for the ugly word "blog." It sounds like the end of a dry heave or something Klingons would eat at a wedding feast.